Time is aĬontinuous variable in order to account for temporal trends. Rfals: rainfall in fall, Sfals: mean snow cover in fall, Tfals: mean temperature inįall, Rwins, Swins and Twins are the same variables for the winter period. s() stands for a smoothing term in the GAM To vole abundance at lags of 6 and 18 months.
SnowMean snow cover in May -0.3 0.13 p < 0.05 *Date of snow melt in Spring -0.19 0.07 p < 0.01 **Mean snow cover in fall -0.12 0.10 P=0.245 NSĪppendix 4: Model selection for winter population growth rate of voles. Number of days with heavy rainfallYearly sum 0.007 0.005 p = 0.055. Number of hot daysYearly mean - p = 0.6 NSBreeding - p = 0.57 NSBrooding - p = 0.56 NSMay - p = 0.9 NSJune -0.014 0.005 p < 0.05 *July - p = 0.22 NS Set suggest the return of lemming cycles but remain unclear regarding the period of this cycleĪppendix 3 Temporal trends for the six climate variables tested according to different Suggesting a lack of periodicity during most of the time series. The black solid line represents the border between FinlandĪppendix 2: Wavelet analysis of the lemming abundance index at Kevo study site, The background imageĬorresponds to a Digital Elevation Model, with a scale going from white (low altitude) toīlack (high altitude > 1000 m.). The valleys that have been monitored every year from 1985 to 2005.
Ecography doi: 10.1111/ecog.01024Īppendix 1: Location of the Kevo study area in Finnish Lapland. Coping with fast climate change in northern ecosystems: mechanisms underlying the population-level response of a specialist avian predator. Ecography ECOG-01024Terraube, J., Villers, A., Ruffino, L., Iso-Iivari, L., Henttonen, H., Oksanen, T.
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